Sea Eagles had 7 new players and got rid of some complete turds along the way - for example Taufua and Parker had horrible numbers and the round 1 bench was abysmal, so moving them on was easy points gain. I think it just shows that it’s not necessarily how many trades you make, but where you make them. The teams are all based off what you listed at the beginning of the thread.
warriors55
warriors55
Yep that is exactly it Mr Brownstone. I pretty much identified my weak players, got rid of them and signed much better alternatives, while still keeping all of my existing elite players.
wizards rage
Great statistics to add to the game. However comparing the ranking with where they finished last year, there is a vague correlation and I don’t think it translates well into reality. But it’s a game and not reality so I guess it gives us an independent decision.
1. Raiders 167.7. 4rd
2. Sharks 167.0. 7th
3. Rabbits 165.3 3rd
4. Cowboys 161.3 14th
5. Panthers 159.0 10th
6. Sea Eagles 158.7 6th
7. Warriors 157.6. 13th
8. Dragons 157.2. 15th
9. Knights 155.9. 11th
I do really question Manly and the Cows placing as outliers. I still consider the cows (14th to 2nd) to be bigger improvers than Manly (6th to first) no matter what these starting numbers tell us.
As I said take Holmes and Marsters out of the Cowboys and they would have started in 8th/ 2nd last. I would say the Sea Eagles are the only real outlier however I don’t recall their bench being anywhere near that bad last year - I’m sure they must have had injury problems to start 2020. Also the scores for the starting teams are all pretty close really - probably underlines why the comp is also so close every year.
wizards rage
On reflection, we are judging in the improvement of the 2020 squad, not last years teams.
Which is a little tricky as the allocation of the war chest were based on last years teams which might not really be applicable.
Anyway it really shows me what the Warriors are up against and how limiting it is to recruit, when you don’t have the whole player pool to chose from.
Which is a little tricky as the allocation of the war chest were based on last years teams which might not really be applicable.
Anyway it really shows me what the Warriors are up against and how limiting it is to recruit, when you don’t have the whole player pool to chose from.
Warriors replaced some low ranked dudes as well
eg.
Burr
Chanel Harris-Tavita
Green
P Herbert
Egan
Blair
Can only imagine the Roger Tuivasa-Sheck trade must have pegged us back a bit? Plus I weakened the bench somewhat? was Nikorima ranked highly? And young Ben T ranked lowly. Did the bench hurt the warriors?
Just curious - don't go to any lengths to answer ...just top of your head?
Cheers
Sure, points differences were:
Walker vs Chanel Harris-Tavita +6.4
Kerr vs Vuniyayawa +3.8
Scott vs Herbert +3.3
Townsend vs Green +3.0
Granville vs Egan +2.3
McLean vs Burr +2.1
Trbojevic vs Taunoa Brown -5.1
Lawton vs Nikorima -2.9
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad vs Roger Tuivasa-Sheck -2.7
Ese’ese vs Papali’i -1.9
Ben Murdoch-Masila vs Blair -1.8
Williams vs Katoa -1.6
I had to estimate what Ben Murdoch-Masila and Burbo would score and in the case of Burbo I gave him the minimum - my assessment rightly or wrongly is that he’s a youngster who isn’t part of the NRL squad and isn’t ready for first grade yet.
And while I have the floor, warriors55 managed the following with his Sea Eagles team:
Taunoa Brown vs Keppie +4.7
Capewell vs Olakauatu +4.4
Marshall vs Parker +3.8
Levi vs Crocker +3.7
Morris vs Taufua +2.8
Welch vs Boyle +2.1
Turpin vs Levi +1.8
Hess vs Thompson -2.8
So just the one negative trade which is remarkable and highlights the genius tactic of picking a team with a terrible starting bench!
Taunoa Brown vs Keppie +4.7
Capewell vs Olakauatu +4.4
Marshall vs Parker +3.8
Levi vs Crocker +3.7
Morris vs Taufua +2.8
Welch vs Boyle +2.1
Turpin vs Levi +1.8
Hess vs Thompson -2.8
So just the one negative trade which is remarkable and highlights the genius tactic of picking a team with a terrible starting bench!
Miket12
I hope Kearney doesn't read this!!!!!!!
'Thanks for that detail.
Could quibble about Ben Murdoch-Masila estimation and since this is the official results ask that he be upgraded to the same score as Blair at least. He was man of the match against the Australians in the test match, which is something that is past Blair at this stage of his career.
However am not sure that would do me much good as the real estimation that killed me was giving young Ben Turbo close to a zero and Jamayne Tounua-Brown a 5 point differential. Jamayne Tounua-Brown has only played two first grade games so that is a huge difference.
In favour of your estimation is that I think Ben Turbo is only 18.
Manly insisted that I put him in my 17 and said they were thinking of putting him in their starting 13.
warriors55 can you make a case that young Ben T deserves the same score as Jamayne Tounua-Brown to Mr Brownstone ?
If that case can be made to you would you be able consider a re-estimation of
1) Ben Murdoch-Masila to same score as Blair
2) Ben T to same score as Jamayne Tounua-Brown
Both contingent on Warriors55 making a convincing argument?
He seemed honestly sold on him in the game and not like him to do a sale.
Let me know both...
Asking because these appear to be the official results and those two players were human estimations and not pre-programmed game ratings,
Ben Murdoch-Masila has played NRL before so there is a historic basis to evaluate him. Let me check my estimate against that as a starter. Burbo is a tough one, injured most of last year I think, very young and playing off the bench. I’m happy to consider a revision however unless I’m mistaken he’s not likely to play first grade in 2020
tajhay
🏉
Correct. Ben is only on a development contract so unlikely to see game time in 2020.
Ben Murdoch-Masila's stats in ESL are underwhelming for how much this forum bases his ability off just one off test match.
Regarding Ben Murdoch-Masila, I estimated a score of 7.7 which equates to a SuperCoach score of 40. Note that this ranks him equivalent to the likes of Horsburgh, Ese’ese, Merrin and Hess. In his last season playing NRL in 2014 he averaged a paltry 17 in SuperCoach and in 2013 where he had much more game time with the Tigers he averaged 30. So I’m pretty comfortable with the score I’ve allocated him.
warriors55
Sorry for the delay wrighty . I promise I didn't sell you a lemon in Ben T. He was on my reserve bench the whole way through until I signed Capewell. And even then I considered playing him ahead of Capewell. I saw his value so didn't want to sell him if he was going to sit out of the 17 when I didn't need Tony Williams back but wanted to keep trading if others needed Ben T.
Ben T is going to be a superstar there is no doubt about it. I actually seriously considered putting him in my starting 13 and having the triple Turbo's. The issue is that he hasn't played first grade yet so it's hard to rate him against other first grade players. Ben T is probably going to better than Jamayne Tounua-Brown in the long term but we can't say for sure. I think Manly are on the cusp of a dynasty with those 3 brothers in the team depending on the make up of the rest of their team. Could be like the Storm with Slater, Smith and Cronk.
However I agree with the way Mr Brownstone calculated the results impartially for Ben T otherwise every young player for every teams reserve bench will need to be rated objectively and it would be one persons opinion against another about how a new player is going to go in first grade. Ben T will be playing Origin someday in my opinion but I could be wrong. Judging on his age grade results though it would be a surprise if he didn't. Especially when you see how his brothers play in first grade.
Ben Murdoch-Masila vs Blair is a little different. At this stage of his career Ben Murdoch-Masila would be much better than Blair but it is difficult to compare them when Ben Murdoch-Masila has been playing super league. I would much much prefer Ben Murdoch-Masila than Blair in my team though that is for sure. Ben Murdoch-Masila should probably be rated better than Blair but we would all need to agree how much - +1 or +2 +3 etc but maybe that could open up a big can of worms for all of our teams.
Hope that helped.
Happy with 7.7 for Ben Murdoch-Masila
Not happy with Blair being a 9...must weight his early days heavily.
Oh well happy with that explanation.
We can drop the Ben Murdoch-Masila conversation.
I note that Warriors55 was comfortable with a 0 score for young BenT.
I am not happy - acquired him on good faith that he was capable of being a bench dude and get Curran-like minutes of 15-20 minutes per game. Was even instructed as a trade condition had to play him on the bench.
On compassionate grounds would like a re-estimation of Ben T only.
If it helps, think of it as evening up a bit as got unlucky with Adam Blair being rated so high and Ice Papa being worth more than Esse'ese. You got the right Papa? Just checking as that surprised as well as Ice has middling stats.
Let me know about my petition.
Wrighty
warriors55
Sorry, that's not what I meant Wrighty. I was saying that if Ben T has a score that is higher than 0 then every other player that has not played first grade would have to also be higher than 0.
Ben T is definitely better than 0. Ben T is probably better than both of our current Warriors centres and most of our back rowers even at this stage of his career. Just in regards to Mr Brownstones ratings I don't know how that would work and that was the system you chose to go with.
I rated Ben T above Parker by the way in my estimation of worth at the start of the game. The only problem with this game is exactly that. Most of us don't know a lot about other teams youth players so they automatically rate low though even when they should be far higher.
Don't know how Ice got rated so high. Would have thought Esse'ese would be nearly twice his value.
warriors55
Here's an article I found about Ben T - https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nr...e/news-story/8fe93c0d5ace57b6cd29292d93cb7293
From what Des says it looks like they are carefully bringing him through the ranks but he is going to be a hell of a player based on what I have seen.
In another 3-4 years he is going to be something special I think.
He is probably ready for 1st grade now.
From what Des says it looks like they are carefully bringing him through the ranks but he is going to be a hell of a player based on what I have seen.
In another 3-4 years he is going to be something special I think.
He is probably ready for 1st grade now.
I didn’t give Burbo a zero score, gave him the equivalent of a 20 SuperCoach average. Blair’s score is based entirely on his 2019 average.
Again based entirely off 2019 data. After playing off the bench in 2019, Ese’ese has actually started at lock in the two games of 2020 so far, however he’s somehow managed to do even worse in the 13 jumper, averaging just 25 vs a 2019 average of 40. The two Knights coaches over the last 2 years don’t seem to want to play him for big minutes, indicates he’s got some issues, defence is a problem I believe. Ice isn’t dynamic however gets through a lot of work.
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