General New Zealand Politics

[Rizzah]

For anyone still thinking that the current government‘s housing policy is going to help FHB’s with things like pushing investors to certain properties, forcing interest rates up and house values down, time to rethink your ideas on their policies. Infometrics have released information showing that’s it’s harder now for First Home Buyers to get into the housing market than in 1987 when interest rates were over twenty percent. In fact, they’ve calculated that it’s the hardest time now in the last 65 years. Jacinda Ardern’s transformational government is setting all sorts of new records…. In the worse possible way…. social housing, truancy, lawlessness, health outcomes, lack of delivery (I.e. Three Waters, third rail line in Auckland, KiwiBuild, child poverty, Christchurch stadium, light rail in Auckland).

Problem is…. I don‘t feel National would do any better. If they get in next year, expect more belt tightening and less spending as they try to get rid of all the spending and Crown debt COVID caused while trying to find a far to cut taxes. All of which will cause more short turn pain.

Ideally, I’d like to see a government that each year tries to run surpluses and then use the additional money to pay down existing Crown debt (20%) create a “war chest” to be used when the economy isn’t going well (20%), infrastructure (20%) and social spending (40%). This is where I disagree with the likes of Hickey who would see us go back to a pre-80’s style of governance when it‘s tax as much as you can, borrow as much as you can, and spend, spend, spend.

We need fresh ideas, not the monetary conservatism of the last 30+ years. Look where it has got us.
I like Hickey because he's floating ideas/conversations to help alleviate the major problems. Are they all correct, probably not - but the discussions are healthy.
He's also a reformed libertarian which shows anyone can be rehabilitated

 

[Juju]

Splitting hairs myself, MIQ wasn’t the problem. We needed it earlier when we had an elimination strategy. But late last year and earlier this year, the govt lost the plot after elimination had failed.

If you read the judgement it specifically said it would not comment upon political aspects (eg deferring to the experts about keeping it so long).

But it was a ‘clusterfuck’. Look at the polls. Labour has lost 12% support in the last 8 months. The court of public opinion has passing judgement and and that’s what really matters.

How are incumbent governments fairing in polls & elections around the world?
It's not a scenario unique to NZ, not particularly specific to covid at all.
After all the government had near unanimous support and record public approval during the pandemic (even you at times until you went all cuckoo posting Leighton Baker content).

What's your metric for "lives devastated by MIQ"? Are you able honestly assess that against the devastation effective MIQ saved the country from.

Take shots at the government by all means but keep things in the realms of reality at at least.

 

[wizards rage]

I mean, you are probably right - what would Hickey know?
We won't get ahead by running surpluses over the next few years. This isn't the family budget. We need to invest to grow the economy/productivity.

We are in a difficult financial situation.

Typically in a recession the economy is stagnating and unemployment has skyrocketed. The traditional solution is that government spends and goes into debt to stimulate the economy out of recession.

At the moment the economy is the opposite - its overheated with low unemployment while heading into a recession. Stagflation… The solution (which the reserve bank is trying to force) is to slow down the economy, reduce investment and growth and have it operating sustainably.

Govt spending is contributing to the problem. That spending is trying to compete for labour that isn’t available causing the economy to track on an unsustainable path. Now is a good time for the govt to run a surplus so as to allow the labour market to rebalance itself again, otherwise our inflation and labour issues will just get worse.

 

[Noitall]

Strange to see Peter Goodfellow resign after only standing and being re elected by the national party last year.

 

[Miket12]

Tony Alexander's take on who will benefit from the latest housing price and interest rate movements.... again, not good news for the government: investors back into the market, FHB's retreating, developers and builders will soon be in trouble. Just at a time we need to increase the housing stock, the opposite will occur. This unfortunately will lead to a fast rise on values when the market eventually turns (TA is picking 6-12 months) because the volume of stock being built will have reduced.

So, who are the main winners from this accelerated environment of house price declines and interest rate rises? Cashed up buyers - which invariably means investors, not first home buyers. Who are the losers? Under-capitalised property developers first of all, followed by some builders as orders for new builds are about to fall away firmly.

OneRoof

www.oneroof.co.nz

 

[Miket12]

We need fresh ideas, not the monetary conservatism of the last 30+ years. Look where it has got us.
I like Hickey because he's floating ideas/conversations to help alleviate the major problems. Are they all correct, probably not - but the discussions are healthy.
He's also a reformed libertarian which shows anyone can be rehabilitated

Is starting to head back to Muldoon-type economic thinking with excessive borrowing based on future tax takes the way to go though?

 

[wizards rage]

What's your metric for "lives devastated by MIQ"? Are you able honestly assess that against the devastation effective MIQ saved the country from.

My metric - once the elimination strategy had been abandoned (which is from when I have issues) we effectively saved 0 lives after that.

Lives devastated have been all over the media - people missing seeing the terminally ill; people denied entry to have babies; people missing funerals, weddings, births of relatives; people trapped overseas once their pensions 6 month timeframe elaspsed; etc.

It’s all in the submissions from the court case which the judge agreed was an unacceptable outcome.

Again for the umpteenth time, people should have self isolated at home (with monitoring) once the MIQ system became overloaded once we had abandoned elimination.

 

[bruce]

For anyone still thinking that the current government‘s housing policy is going to help FHB’s with things like pushing investors to certain properties, forcing interest rates up and house values down, time to rethink your ideas on their policies. Infometrics have released information showing that’s it’s harder now for First Home Buyers to get into the housing market than in 1987 when interest rates were over twenty percent. In fact, they’ve calculated that it’s the hardest time now in the last 65 years. Jacinda Ardern’s transformational government is setting all sorts of new records…. In the worse possible way…. social housing, truancy, lawlessness, health outcomes, lack of delivery (I.e. Three Waters, third rail line in Auckland, KiwiBuild, child poverty, Christchurch stadium, light rail in Auckland).

Problem is…. I don‘t feel National would do any better. If they get in next year, expect more belt tightening and less spending as they try to get rid of all the spending and Crown debt COVID caused while trying to find a far to cut taxes. All of which will cause more short turn pain.

Ideally, I’d like to see a government that each year tries to run surpluses and then use the additional money to pay down existing Crown debt (20%) create a “war chest” to be used when the economy isn’t going well (20%), infrastructure (20%) and social spending (40%). This is where I disagree with the likes of Hickey who would see us go back to a pre-80’s style of governance when it‘s tax as much as you can, borrow as much as you can, and spend, spend, spend.

Mike, Asians in particular see investing in their kids education and rental property as the best way to save. That is nothing new.

There are trillions buried in tax havens always looking for a home, when interest rates were low property of any description was a good investment. That has nothing to do with Cindy or the Nats.

Add to that our missive increase in immigrants added to the problem.

So IMO most of the housing problem has been imported.

 

[Fonzie]

Ideally, I’d like to see a government that each year tries to run surpluses and then use the additional money to pay down existing Crown debt (20%) create a “war chest” to be used when the economy isn’t going well (20%), infrastructure (20%) and social spending (40%). This is where I disagree with the likes of Hickey who would see us go back to a pre-80’s style of governance when it‘s tax as much as you can, borrow as much as you can, and spend, spend, spend.

Hi mate, do you appreciate that (generally speaking) a government surplus requires a private sector deficit? Your policy prescription of maintaining permanent government surpluses with a ‘war chest’ would drive the private sector to ruin and is completely unsustainable.

For ref:

Sectoral balances - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[wizards rage]

Hi mate, do you appreciate that (generally speaking) a government surplus requires a private sector deficit? Your policy prescription of maintaining permanent government surpluses with a ‘war chest’ would drive the private sector to ruin and is completely unsustainable.

For ref:

Sectoral balances - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

But it should be a balanced over time.

Otherwise if the government keeps borrowing and spending its artificially overstimulating the economy by borrowing from the future to give a short term boost which isn’t sustainable long term.

We should operate In cycles - government spends when the economy is bad; it pays down debt when the economy is good.

 

[bruce]

This will surprise some of you, my new BFF

Bruce -- Thank you for signing our petition. Labour’s immigration “green list” puts skilled migrants on a fast-track to New Zealand residency - but this list does not include nurses and midwives! Astoundingly, the new fast-track settings don’t come into effect until September (just in time for our winter flu season to be over). We’re calling for Labour to protect Kiwis and our healthcare system in time for winter by: 1. Immediately adding nurses and midwives to the fast-track, straight-to-residence list 2. Starting the fast-track process immediately 3. Ensuring the process of gaining residency is complete within three months of application Help us send a message to Labour by asking your friends and family to add their name to our petition. Regards Christopher Luxon National Party Leader You can sign the petition here: https://www.national.org.nz/fast-track-more-nurses-and-midwives

 

[the borg]

This will surprise some of you, my new BFF

Bruce -- Thank you for signing our petition. Labour’s immigration “green list” puts skilled migrants on a fast-track to New Zealand residency - but this list does not include nurses and midwives! Astoundingly, the new fast-track settings don’t come into effect until September (just in time for our winter flu season to be over). We’re calling for Labour to protect Kiwis and our healthcare system in time for winter by: 1. Immediately adding nurses and midwives to the fast-track, straight-to-residence list 2. Starting the fast-track process immediately 3. Ensuring the process of gaining residency is complete within three months of application Help us send a message to Labour by asking your friends and family to add their name to our petition. Regards Christopher Luxon National Party Leader You can sign the petition here: https://www.national.org.nz/fast-track-more-nurses-and-midwives

Not quite sure what the point is here... One thing I've noticed is that Luxon pulls the piss out of the current govt. But having seen his broadcasts thats all it seems to be... he bags out govt policies but offers nothing when asked... except tax cuts to the rich.
All he's doing is following his mentor... God Sir Donkey use the media to pull the piss.
I really hope people realise that this Govts doing its best to help people. Unfortunately if people do their research most of the media CEOs are Luxons ex work mates busy waiting for the tax cuts he promises ... so if you were CEO wouldn't you tell your journalists to be as biased as fuck.. I would screw everyone else.. Donkey taught them how to be selfish... after all I quote " Its their fault, their not sucessfull" ... the mind boggles how dumb kiwis elected him...

 

[john nick]

Not quite sure what the point is here... One thing I've noticed is that Luxon pulls the piss out of the current govt. But having seen his broadcasts thats all it seems to be... he bags out govt policies but offers nothing when asked... except tax cuts to the rich. All he's doing is following his mentor... God Sir Donkey use the media to pull the piss. I really hope people realise that this Govts doing its best to help people. Unfortunately if people do their research most of the media CEOs are Luxons ex work mates busy waiting for the tax cuts he promises ... so if you were CEO wouldn't you tell your journalists to be as biased as fuck.. I would screw everyone else.. Donkey taught them how to be selfish... after all I quote " Its their fault, their not sucessfull" ... the mind boggles how dumb kiwis elected him...

True mate. I would love for someone to come along and solve all these problems. Education, gangs, health,child poverty, drug abuse, and shit loads of other stuff.
However I am sure that Luxon is not the person to do the job

 

[Mr Brownstone]

True mate. I would love for someone to come along and solve all these problems. Education, gangs, health,child poverty, drug abuse, and shit loads of other stuff.
However I am sure that Luxon is not the person to do the job

But the problem right now is that Jacinda has proven that she isn’t the person to fix those problems either. So therefore she will get voted out.

 

[Miket12]

Hi mate, do you appreciate that (generally speaking) a government surplus requires a private sector deficit? Your policy prescription of maintaining permanent government surpluses with a ‘war chest’ would drive the private sector to ruin and is completely unsustainable.

For ref:

Sectoral balances - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Will, NZ must be heading to the crapper then considering one of the new fiscal rule from this year's budget is for government's to try and have a maximum 2% surplus of GDP each year once the current debt has been paid back. But then doing so hasn't damaged the economy of Norway who, despite having some largest social expenditure per capita in the world, still run their economy in a surplus the majority of the time.

Budget 22: New fiscal rules to be put in place

Finance Minister Grant Robertson has unveiled new fiscal rules to ensure New Zealand continues to maintain a world-leading Government financial position.

www.beehive.govt.nz

 

[john nick]

But the problem right now is that Jacinda has proven that she isn’t the person to fix those problems either. So therefore she will get voted out.

The real problem is who the fuck is going to sort it. Do you have any answers. All very well to be a critic but with no answer is a waste of time

 

[Miket12]

The real problem is who the fuck is going to sort it. Do you have any answers

I'm in two minds about do we extend the parliamentary term to four years so a new government actually has time to implement policy properly instead of governing by how they are in the opinion polls and if they can successfully hold power after the next election.

Then again.... it's easier to throw out a crap government if the time between elections is shorter and hopefully they wouldn't cause as much damage in three years as in four.

 

[Inruin]

I'm in two minds about do we extend the parliamentary term to four years so a new government actually has time to implement policy properly instead of governing by how they are in the opinion polls and if they can successfully hold power after the next election.

Then again.... it's easier to throw out a crap government if the time between elections is shorter and hopefully they wouldn't cause as much damage in three years as in four.

This government has had 6 years (yes Covid can be used as a reason why something's aren't getting done). And this term they have no handbrakes. I think 4:years can do more damage than good.... You might also see a change of govt more frequently

 

[Mr Brownstone]

The real problem is who the fuck is going to sort it. Do you have any answers

It won’t be Luxon, he couldn’t even see the risks within the airline industry when he ran Air NZ. However the public won’t realise that. Regardless, I genuinely believe this is the worst government that I’ve ever seen, so the sooner these current muppets are moved on the better.

 

[john nick]

It won’t be Luxon, he couldn’t even see the risks within the airline industry when he ran Air NZ. However the public won’t realise that. Regardless, I genuinely believe this is the worst government that I’ve ever seen, so the sooner these current muppets are moved on the better.

Sounding like a politician mate. Critical but no idea how to fix the problem