General Finals Aspirations

[Jesbass_old]

After having previously been convinced that the Warriors' finals aspirations were dead and buried, I heard something very interesting on the ABC radio broadcast during the build up to the Eels-Sharks match. The commentators were discussing the Warriors' win which had finished only minutes earlier, and about how we have the third best points differential on the table. (The Storm have a PD of +185, the Bulldogs have +147, and the Warriors have +83.) They then went on to examine Brisbane's fortunes of late.

Here is a potential situation that they talked about: if the Broncos lose their next three matches, (this round included), and the Warriors win their next two, the Broncos will be on 26 points on the edge of the top eight, and the Warriors will be on 24. The two teams then face each other, and if the Warriors win, (pushing both teams to 26 points), the Warriors would edge the Broncos out of the finals series by our superior points differential.

These are big ifs, to be sure, but I can see the Broncos collapsing from here on out. Going into tomorrow's match against the Storm, the Broncos are on a four match losing streak. Their final four matches are against the Storm, then the Bulldogs, then the Eels, and finally the Warriors. The first three of those teams are in red hot form, and the Warriors are no longer afraid of Big Brother Bronco.

From the Warriors' point of view, we have already defeated the Cowboys, then face the red hot Storm, followed by the up and down Roosters, and the struggling Broncos.

Whilst fighting between the idealist and the realist within me, I love the thought that we could still have a chance, especially after two outstanding wins against the Sharks and the Cowboys. I do, however, struggle to see us overcoming the Storm in Melbourne. Having said that, assuming the Broncos continue their losing ways, (which is likely, considering their upcoming opposition), and if we can somehow edge past the Storm next week, we could be very seriously looking at a finish in 8th position.

From there on, the idealist takes over, reasoning that if we've beaten the Storm in Melbourne to get closer to the top eight, we can do it again in the first week of the finals series...hehe...

Thoughts?

 

[*~*Fa'AhVaN*~*_old]

i hope we can contain the storm next weekend itll b hard but watchin tonites game i feel we can do just about anything, i will b over the moon if we do finish in eighth position we deserve it and guttenbeil and webb deserve it. bring on the next three weeks!! GO WARRIORS!!!!!!!!!!

 

[patty_old]

how good would it be to get into the top 8 with our loss of four points. it really shows how good the warriors are going. we would be in the top 8 if it wasnt for that bullshit. ive already booked my tickets to the warriors-broncos match and i would love it even more if it becomes a decider to the warriors or broncos getting into the top 8. but in all respect if we beat the storm all hell would break loose FOR US WARRIORS DIEHARDS!!!!

UP THE MIGHTYS WARRIORS!!! YEAH

 

[edguy_old]

sounds good ...... also im sure the players will know these things ,
the broncos are falling apart , and if we can knock off the stormers next weekend , which i reckon we can .....
we have been the team that ended many a winning streak over the last few years ..........

this weeks courier mail said we couldnt finish any higher than 12 ......i just laughed when i read that .......we can finish in 8th with luck ...
go warriors

 

[Skinny_Ravs82]

As your recent article suggests Jes, the rugby league gods don't exisit. But I think you've got a good argument here. There is alot of 'ifs' and all of that. It is a tough thing to beat the Storm this coming weekend but I've got enough confidence in our boys to topple the Victorians (damn my name sake! lmao); Broncos however their future is up in the air. If they win tomorrow then I think they are capable of doing better. But I'm not holding my breath for them (as much as I'm a Broncos fan too).

However let us not get our heads too caught up in finals calculations

 

[warriorfaithful*_old]

Yeah can't wait to upset the storm next week, cos lets face it, we will be major underdogs going into it. Won't we!?

 

[Robster_old]

panthers losing yesterday somewhat helpt us.

 

[ONETRIBECHIEF_old]

I heard that on the way home the game i reackon we can do it

 

[warriors4life_old]

As long as we beat the Storm and the Broncos continue losing we have a real chance of squeezing into the playoffs. But the Storm haven't lost at Olympic Park since last year sometime so it will be very hard.

 

[Esoj_old]

some of those teams on 24 and 26 points don't have easy runs home so if some of them continue to lose and we keep wining we could sneak a spot in the playoffs. our points differential is quite good and a lot better than other teams in the 8 currently so if it comes down to p/d we will have a good chance.

a lot has to happen before this though. our best hope of making the 8 is wining every game.

 

[westie stylz_old]

I used the nrl predictor before the warriors v sharks game last week to see if we were mathematically able to make it and found that we could still finish as high as 7th.

The only problem is that even if the Broncos do lose every game and we win every game we still might not make it.

If the Sharks beat the Panthers and Raiders they would finish on 28 points and knock us out.

We need the Sharks, Panthers and raiders to lose as many matches as possible. But The Sharks are playing the Panthers and raiders plus the Raiders have a bye so they are all going to pick up points regardless.

And if the Broncos snap their bad form at anytime then we are gone.

Not to mention our slim chances of beating Melbourne away next weekend.

I'd say we are a 1 in 10 chance of making it.

 

[warriorfaithful*_old]

I'd say we are a 1 in 10 chance of making it.

Hey any chance is better than no chance . I'm keeping the faith!!!!!

GO THE WARRIORS!!!!!!

 

[KeepingTheFaith_old]

I don't think we'll make it, but it won't stop me from watching every game and supporting the boys until the final whistle is blown.

In 2002 we claimed the minor premiership after a few results went our way that weren't expected. Anything is possible.

 

[Skinny_Ravs82]

Anything is possible.

Let us just take it week by week guys, Storm will be tough but everyone watch their match against the Broncos!! haha. If Broncos win...well it will be hard for us but hopefully the Broncos can find a way to find some weak link in the Storm both offensively and defensively which gives us clues as to how to deal with them.

 

[westie stylz_old]

If the Broncos, Dragons and Raiders all win the three matches today we are all but completely eliminated from finals contention.

I just worked it out as each team would finish on at least 28 points (Raiders and Knights have byes and Dragons and Broncos would move to 28 points with wins).

The only thing that could keep us in it if those three teams win would be if the Eels lost their last 3 matches.

So we need Storm, Bulldogs and Tigers wins please!!!

 

[Skinny_Ravs82]

With the way the Tigers have been travelling lately (not to dissimilar to the Cowboys) don't count on them too much

 

[Jesbass_old]

With Brisbane's 30-0 thrashing of the Bulldogs last night, (poor Bulldogs had only 14 men 20 minutes in, and only 13 just after half time), we need either the Eels or the Dragons to lose all of their remaining games.

Their fixtures are as follows:
EELS
v Roosters (a)
v Broncos (h)
v Cowboys (a)

DRAGONS
v Tigers (h)
v Sharks (h)
v Roosters (a)

We also need the Sharks, Panthers and Cowboys to win no more than two of their last three matches.

In all honesty, our best bet has to be the injury ravaged Dragons. But I think we're definitely beginning to grasp at some very loose straws!