Inruin

Warriors 1st Grader
Contributor
May 19, 2012
9,296
Auckland

Only numbers you need to look at are here. Make up your own minds whether we are going to run out before the next shipment in July or if the 8 million doses will be able to be administered before Christmas
 

john nick

1st Grade Fringe
Mar 28, 2020
2,371
tauranga

Only numbers you need to look at are here. Make up your own minds whether we are going to run out before the next shipment in July or if the 8 million doses will be able to be administered before Christmas
Please understand that this government or anyone else cannot be responsible for arrival of shipments. There is a worldwide demand and because of our handling of Covid we are not regarded as urgent
 

john nick

1st Grade Fringe
Mar 28, 2020
2,371
tauranga
I'm not sure that this is even a decision that is being made by anyone. Is there a world vaccine portion control committee allocating out to where they want based on greatest need? I think overall we are a blip in the total volumes being administered world wide and while I understand the sentiment I can't believe that this is actually happening.
Check out Covax
 
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Sup42

Warriors 1st Grader
May 7, 2012
19,843
Check out Covax
Yes. A crowd called Gavi run Covax.

Covax is an initiative (you I see already know this) between Vaccine manufacturers and participating countries which contribute towards Vaccine research, development, and distribution.

All member nations are treated equally without variation for the differing financial status of the member countries.

NZ have decided to keep their 50,000 Pfizer Vaccines from Covax and to supply the Pacific with Ox AZ donated Vaccines.

The US are planning on sending half a Billion doses to India via Covax.

There is a drive by Gavi (the organisers of Covax) to supply two Billion Vaccines world wide in the coming year.

Hopefully they manage to do so. These are large volumes they are trying to get funded.
 

Inruin

Warriors 1st Grader
Contributor
May 19, 2012
9,296
Auckland
Yes. A crowd called Gavi run Covax.

Covax is an initiative (you I see already know this) between Vaccine manufacturers and participating countries which contribute towards Vaccine research, development, and distribution.

All member nations are treated equally without variation for the differing financial status of the member countries.

NZ have decided to keep their 50,000 Pfizer Vaccines from Covax and to supply the Pacific with Ox AZ donated Vaccines.

The US are planning on sending half a Billion doses to India via Covax.

There is a drive by Gavi (the organisers of Covax) to supply two Billion Vaccines world wide in the coming year.

Hopefully they manage to do so. These are large volumes they are trying to get funded.
yes, this is for equitable supply - so poorer countries don't miss out to richer ones. Where does it state 'well, you don't have much covid so we will supply countries who have more covid first'?
 

Noitall

1st Grade Fringe
Aug 21, 2019
1,859
yes, this is for equitable supply - so poorer countries don't miss out to richer ones. Where does it state 'well, you don't have much covid so we will supply countries who have more covid first'?
It may not be policy but ethically it’s the right thing to do, also makes sense to immunise those places that can potentially create variants. Think that’s why the US has brought half a billion Pfizer vaccines to disperse through poorer countries.
 

Sup42

Warriors 1st Grader
May 7, 2012
19,843
Good Data on the Indian Delta variant is coming out of the UK who obviously are able to better track this Variant in real time.,

Probably the most stunning feature of this new variant is seeing it measure for transmissibility in a reliable health Science system like the UK.

The Current R naught value in the UK is 1.3......remember R naught’s? how many people an infected person as a mathematical average the virus is being passed on too?

Early estimates of the India Variant range from an R naught of 6.....to 8 (that higher figure is courtesy of modelling by Professor Paul Hunter (East Anglia medical school).

So you can already see how India is struggling, and why Melbourne so very quickly had a more stressful time of it, and why the UK is headed for another wave.

You can also see why the UK variant has now been almost completely replaced by the India variant....and how this is happening so rappidly.

A similar thing can be expected in the US....it will mathematically through rapid exponential growth pretty much wipe out all the other variants,

I think at this point, about our contributors to this thread and their decision to decline the Vaccine.

I can see a time where there will be an outbreak here in the teens and Kids, who have not been vaccinated, and how that will in turn find the more at risk unvaccinated folk in our country and other countries around the world.

The good news for people living in the UK is that the office for National statistics and the National health service are not panicking about what the India variant means for them.

This is because the health care system can deal with the level of demand due to the numbers of vaccinated people in the population, and therefore the likely patients will be in the younger aged un vaccinated groups, who of course are less likely to have serious outcomes.

This tipping point, where a new very infectious virus does not threaten the health care system, will have to be found here for a NZ context.
 

Sup42

Warriors 1st Grader
May 7, 2012
19,843
yes, this is for equitable supply - so poorer countries don't miss out to richer ones. Where does it state 'well, you don't have much covid so we will supply countries who have more covid first'?
No where as far as I am aware.

I have always assumed that their model is somewhat arbitrary and rigid to prevent conflict.
 
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Inruin

Warriors 1st Grader
Contributor
May 19, 2012
9,296
Auckland
It may not be policy but ethically it’s the right thing to do, also makes sense to immunise those places that can potentially create variants. Think that’s why the US has brought half a billion Pfizer vaccines to disperse through poorer countries.
Two separate things there. One is a rich country supplying poorer countries with vaccines much like New Zealand and Australia doing for the islands which is great and should be happening.

The second thing, and while I agree with the sentiment and that has been touted as a reason to why we dropped down the list and haven't received as many vaccines as perhaps we would have liked, I don't believe this is actually happening. Or are people suggesting that our government has made a conscious decision on their own and haven't told us that they would rather miss out on their supply of vaccines in a timely fashion in order for other countries that may have more covid getting theirs? Or the other alternative is that there is a global management team making decisions on who should get vaccine based predominantly on who has more covid in the country?
 
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Sup42

Warriors 1st Grader
May 7, 2012
19,843
It may not be policy but ethically it’s the right thing to do, also makes sense to immunise those places that can potentially create variants. Think that’s why the US has brought half a billion Pfizer vaccines to disperse through poorer countries.
Agreed.

Prevention is better than cure. Medicine 101, and no one can dispute that lore.

It will be interesting to see how the world responds to the next pandemic.

We should expect change after a WHO review of the Covid 19 experience, and some change.

We will need to do better.

Industry will, at some point, especially the insurance industry, become key drivers of change.

Anyone can see that economically the world needs a radically different approach to the next pandemic.
 

Sup42

Warriors 1st Grader
May 7, 2012
19,843
Two separate things there. One is a rich country supplying poorer countries with vaccines much like New Zealand and Australia doing for the islands which is great and should be happening.

The second thing and while I agree with the sentiment and that has been touted as a reason to why we dropped down the list and haven't received as many vaccines as perhaps we would have liked I don't believe this is actually happening. Or are people suggesting that our government has made a conscious decision on their own and haven't told us that they would rather miss out on their supply of vaccines in a timely fashion in order for other countries that may have more covod getting theirs? Or the other alternative is that there is a global management team making decisions on who should get vaccine based predominantly on who has more covid in the country?

I agree with your post.

'Without proof', you can imagine Pfizer saying...."Its New Zealand, they have zero cases....they are least likely to complain about our ability to supply product"....and if they do make noises, it will reflect on them more than our company.

I do not think our Govt has decided not to push their trolley to the front of the queue either.

What really held us back....was our decision to invest in multiple vaccine candidates....the scatter gun purchasing approach.

Had we locked in an exclusivity deal with Pfizer at the start...we would be further down the track now I feel.

I do not blame the Govt for acting on the advice of our scientists to make a liquorice all sorts order when no one knew which Vaccines would succeed and whether or not we could set up the super cool chain freezing infrastructure adequately to vaccinate an entire small nation like ours.

Critically with the Pfizer decision, no one knew it could be kept safely for several days in an ordinary cool storage.

To me it has been a boon that we waited a bit longer and were delayed in our plans to such a point where it became very clear that a Pfizer plan for all, was the best plan.

I am not saying that was by design....as Bruce says....I am just saying like.
 

Inruin

Warriors 1st Grader
Contributor
May 19, 2012
9,296
Auckland
I agree with your post.

'Without proof', you can imagine Pfizer saying...."Its New Zealand, they have zero cases....they are least likely to complain about our ability to supply product"....and if they do make noises, it will reflect on them more than our company.

I do not think our Govt has decided not to push their trolley to the front of the queue either.

What really held us back....was our decision to invest in multiple vaccine candidates....the scatter gun purchasing approach.

Had we locked in an exclusivity deal with Pfizer at the start...we would be further down the track now I feel.

I do not blame the Govt for acting on the advice of our scientists to make a liquorice all sorts order when no one knew which Vaccines would succeed and whether or not we could set up the super cool chain freezing infrastructure adequately to vaccinate an entire small nation like ours.

Critically with the Pfizer decision, no one knew it could be kept safely for several days in an ordinary cool storage.

To me it has been a boon that we waited a bit longer and were delayed in our plans to such a point where it became very clear that a Pfizer plan for all, was the best plan.

I am not saying that was by design....as Bruce says....I am just saying like.
The hedging your bets type approach was the right one I feel. Looks like we made a fairly well advised decision and picked a few of the more likely candidates to deliver an effective vaccine and Pfizer was one of them.

There is a lot of speculation as to why we slipped down the list and had delays in vaccine deliveries. It will be interesting when the final reviews are done to see what comes out about what was and wasn't in our control. Certainly any delay hasn't been because we or a global management team made a decision not to send to us based on active covid numbers vs another country.
 
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wizards rage

1st Grade Fringe
Apr 18, 2016
3,642
Tauranga
The Current R naught value in the UK is 1.3......remember R naught’s? how many people an infected person as a mathematical average the virus is being passed on too?

Early estimates of the India Variant range from an R naught of 6.....to 8 (that higher figure is courtesy of modelling by Professor Paul Hunter (East Anglia medical school).
If 42% of the UK is vaccinated, does the current 1.3 R value in a highly vaccinated population mean a value in an unvaccinated population would be closer to 2?

If India’s vaccination rate is only 3.3% then the virus will be ripping through the population...
 

Sup42

Warriors 1st Grader
May 7, 2012
19,843
*-If 42% of the UK is vaccinated, does the current 1.3 R value in a highly vaccinated population mean a value in an unvaccinated population would be closer to 2?

If India’s vaccination rate is only 3.3% then the virus will be ripping through the population...
Brilliant post.

This is exactly what experts project through modelling for the UK based on Vaccinations and the new R naught.

They believe in that environment that the Delta Indian Variant is between forty to fifty percent more transmissible....even though the R naught is up around six to eight people per infected person.

So we are seeing the effect of having a vaccine....before you reach herd immunity,,., it starts to protect a population at 42% uptake by reducing the R naught amongst a section of the population that are most threatened by such an infectious strain.

Good to know....that when we hit plus forty percent, we are much safer in a new outbreak too in terms of our DHBs ability to cope with the load.

In simple terms, if you get to forty two percent, and you assume most of the elderly are at much higher coverage within that percentage, that hospitalisation and deaths drop even with the newer nastier strains.

So this is evidence that the plan to target people most likely to get hit hard....is the best way to go.
 
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