General Can They Make The 8 – And Does It Matter If They Do?

[eudebrito]

Throwing this out there, first thread I have created, let me know if this has been posted elsewhere.

These kind of posts can only really be done after a good victory, after a bad loss the answer has is, “Nah, they will lose 2 out of every 3 games and come in 13th”

Was playing around with the nrl.com ladder predictor at work this morning (great time waster that) the boys are a chance, and it’s not as far-fetched as I thought.
No team has made the top 8 with less than 28 points since 2007. With their shoddy points for/against, I think this is the minimum they will need. They are currently on 8 pts upcoming byes takes it to 12.

There are 14 games remaining. They would need to win 8 of them to get to 28 pts.
8 out of 14 doesn't sound too bad right? after what we saw last night? Well…

Rd 13 Sea Eagles (H)
Rd 14 Roosters (A)
Rd 15 bye
Rd 16 Broncos (H)
Rd 17 Rabbits (A, Perth)
Rd 18 bye
Rd 19 Tigers (A)
Rd 20 Storm (H)
Rd 21 Sharks (H)
Rd 22 Sea Eagles (A)
Rd 23 Panthers (H)
Rd 24 Titans (A)
Rd 25 Raiders (H)
Rd 26 Dragons (A)


That’s a pretty tough draw, see how many wins you all think they can get out of that lot, I’ll give them (semi-realistically) 7 of 14 and just missing the 8 on 26 points. They really need one of the next 2, i'm thinking manly at home are more likely than roosters away. Even if they win all their home games (possible) they would need 3 of 6 on the road.

But how much of a difference does it make to come 8th (with a small chance of making another GF) than it is to come 10th and hope for better next year?
It's going to be really hard to advance far with no home playoff games, the start of the season has put paid to that.

After the debacle at the end of last year, you would have to call a top 8 berth a pretty big success - but should we expect more?

 

[InsideBall]

All depends on if they can get on a roll...

They need to show they can win against teams that are playing well. Realistically, I think we will fall just short. But, you never know with this team. This game against Manly defines the season for mine - a win against them, and they will have the confidence and self belief to think they can take on anyone. The skies the limit from there...

 

[Navigator]

if they play like they have the last 2 games then I think they are areal chance . this weekend will tell we need to stop the eagles from making ground less points scored the easier it is to win.

 

[SilentOne]

They should have beaten Storm, Souths and Canberra earlier this year. If these two wins can gave them enough confidence I give them a chance in making the 8.

Rd 23 is a must win in my opinion, the day of vengeance.

 

[Samwitwiki]

It will be tough...

 

[Matulino's Left Shoulder]

for ultimate value and thrilling experience, the boys should lose every game until the last 8 and go on a 8 game winning streak with the 8th game ending on a martel drop goal in golden point time

 

[Defence]

Tbh I put a line through them after the bulldogs game- it's been great to have a couple of wins, pumping the broncos was particularly choice but still can't see them making it

 

[Akkerz]

I'm thinking : definate wins in rounds 14 16 19 20 23 25
: maybe wins in rounds 13 21 24 26
: probable losses in rounds 17 22
so current 12 with byes + my optimistic wins 12 + 6 from good luck = 30

Might just scrape in but there are some stacked teams out there . I'm of the opinion that come the end of the comp we will get what the team wants to give us - as in 2012

 

[Fazz]

I'll just be happy to put in respectable (or better) performances for the rest of the year. If the top 8 comes with that, great. If not, there's always 2014.

 

[eamon]

one word, and that word is ....no. Sorry to say it, but I don't think they deserve it either. The win over the bronco's was great, and on that eorm they would have beaten anyone....But one game doesn't make a season.

 

[smc]

I think the eight is nothing but a distant dream at this stage.
We will win three games tigers panthers and dragons.
I expect us to be beaten by the other teams. Maybe we'll beat the broncos again depending on how their stars pull up four days after origin.

 

[Marshthedarsh]

It's certainly doable - but I don't think it will happen. Because if we make the finals from here, surely we'll win the competition.

Being optimistic, I see at least 4 losses - and they're all away games. Maybe finishing 7th...

Sadly I don't think this is the year. We'll probably be handed a firm loss by the Seagles and be brought back down to earth.

 

[Raurimu Massive]

8 out of 14 is definitely possible. I would expect us to have over 50% success rate from the signs we've seen so far this season. A couple of abominations aside, some of the play is the best we've seen for years - it's as if the lads now actually value and respect the level of structure we had under Cleary, which they definitely didn't at the time.

 

[Qtownwarrior]

Hate to be a picky prick but Rd21 against the sharks we are at home, only reason I remember is I spent over 3 hours sitting on the train that day and copped some serious sunburn to watch them get spanked. Told myself I wont pay for tickets until I saw some improvement so locking in the game vs the Roosters and looking forward to it!

 

[TimoNZ]

South Sydney in Perth.. Damn that will be tough! Gotta keep the faith tho

 

[OMG]

There are a lot of teams that have come this far near unscathed which is rare, a run of injuries for any team in the 8 that was similar to ours and they would be gone. Melborne without one of their guns look vulnerable and a couple of injuries to the bunnies and Roosters could kill off their season real quick, imagine they started losing part of their spine and 2 Props..gorn IMO.
While there is a mathematical chance there is a chance.

 

[Sup42]

It would be nuts if they made it from here without a goal kicker.

Beat Manly and the Roosters then look out.

That would convince me they are a new team of top four team headhunters.

 

[Gizzyfan]

I want to see the squad developed with depth created and to regain respect. As such I am not overly concerned about the 8. Everyone wants Locke signed asap. He is regaining his best form and is worth good money. Note to Scurrah, pay the money numbnuts.
It is a stretch to expect the team as it is to go too far into the finals. I want to see Lousi develop as expected. He could be the big man we need. Has to play though. I want Friend to take his option.

Next year we could have a starting team of Lock, Vatuvei, Neilson, Hurrell, Laumape, Tomkins, Johnstone, Packer, Leuluei ,Matulino, Mateo, Bukaya, Mannering, Louisi, Gubb, Lillyman, Friend. That still leaves plenty of good players with NRL experience.

 

[koolkat]

If we finish in 9/10th ill be stoked,we are in a rebuilding phase remember.we need time 2014/2015 this team with a few more tweaks like Bukuya,Tompkins??and with another good signing we make the finals and give it a shake.we need patience in ME,I really do think we have picked a coach that could take this team to the top. finishing 9th will be a great achievement, especially for a team that could hardly tie it's own boots at the start of the season,we are on the improve.

 

[wallacenz]

I'm thinking : definate wins in rounds 14 16 19 20 23 25
: maybe wins in rounds 13 21 24 26
: probable losses in rounds 17 22
so current 12 with byes + my optimistic wins 12 + 6 from good luck = 30

Might just scrape in but there are some stacked teams out there . I'm of the opinion that come the end of the comp we will get what the team wants to give us - as in 2012

roosters a definite.. i dont know, thats not an origin week... and the storm round 20, i think thats hopeful