General 2023 NRL Ladder

[Ref]

Some serious delusions of grandeur here or maybe just a typo?

Not a typo.

I think transfers and retirements have weakened a few teams, strengthened others.

Others like the Broncos are an ongoing soap opera.

St George don't have the cattle to win many games.
Dolphins just won't be good enough to win many.
Manly will struggle if Turbo goes down which is almost a guarantee.

Raiders and Titans could fire or flop.

Cowboys went from 2nd last to 2nd .

The Warriors depth is a bit underrated for mine other than prop.

 

[Beastmode]

After tonight’s trial, I look forward to everyone believing we are now top 4

 

[wizards rage]

After tonight’s trial, I look forward to everyone believing we are now top 4

The annual preseason belief that this is going to be our year.

This team gets me every time!

 

[Worried2Death]

After that epic display we'll finish 8th like Daniel Anderson's first season, a mere prelude to our 3rd grand final next year, that's our year

 

[ndp26]

One must (try) and not get carried away with last night's performance. Don't get me wrong, there were a lot of positives (e.g., young players - particularly forwards - standing up, ball movement, defensive patterns) and there is definite improvement from the Brown days. However, it was one game and against a fairly young/inexperienced Tigers side (particularly their spine).
Success for Webby this year, in my eyes, will be based on improved performances (as others on the forum have mentioned) rather than ladder position. Not that the club would ever admit it, but the signings and development opportunities still suggest we are making a tilt for the premiership in 2024...

To ensure my post stays true to the thread, 9-13 is a realistic finish in 2023 given the new coach/cattle (pros and cons) and a bit of home-grown youth coming through to hopefully fill roster gaps. I'll be pleasantly surprised if Webby took us to the 8 in his first year given the squad - although he is highly rated in the coaching circles, so in Webby we trust!!

 

[Beastmode]

It pains me to say this, but the Broncos look bloody good

No idea what Marty Tapau is doing there but its the icing on the cake.

They look stacked across the park.

 

[kos]

Yeah agree with you on the Broncos. Even the 29 year old half has been good / guy pulled out of the Qrl.

 

[Wrighty]

a difference between the tier one teams and the bottom teams is the quality of the centres
Broncos have outstanding Centres
Warriors have yet to decide our centre pairing,

 

[Defence]

How is finishing 6th or 5th any more likely according to a mathematical odds perspective than finishing 1st

All of those outcomes are One thousand to one long shots. There is no material difference for a lot of statisticians between Ten thousand to one and One thousand to one. Both will be a major fluke to happen,
We have just as much chance of beating the Panthers in the playoffs when the chips are down as beating the Roosters. or Souths or the Storm.

Not quite a thousand to one- we’re paying $20 to make top 4 and $126 to win the minor premiership.
There’s your difference.

 

[Wrighty]

Not quite a thousand to one- we’re paying $20 to make top 4 and $126 to win the minor premiership.
There’s your difference.

Have those odds dipped though since our pre season victory?
I made my quoted post well before that when the odds may have been astronomical

 

[Beastmode]

Not quite a thousand to one- we’re paying $20 to make top 4 and $126 to win the minor premiership.
There’s your difference.

So you’re saying if I made a $1000 investment, my return is $126,000?

Wow! I’m rich !!

 

[Wrighty]

So you’re saying if I made a $1000 investment, my return is $126,000?

Wow! I’m rich !!

You just concentrate on your nudie run you promised us fella !

 

[TheMorningEmu]

Tried the NRL Ladder Predictor and did my best to not look at the ladder as I picked the games.

Was anticipating the Panthers, Storm and us being a few slots lower and the Sharks being a few higher, but other than that, it is about how I thought it would shake out before I did the picks.

 

[Dixpat]

What didn’t you like re Manly’s 2 trial games that only sees them win 5 games?

 

[wizards rage]

Tried the NRL Ladder Predictor and did my best to not look at the ladder as I picked the games.

Was anticipating the Panthers, Storm and us being a few slots lower and the Sharks being a few higher, but other than that, it is about how I thought it would shake out before I did the picks.

View attachment 50983

The old point differential, screwing us again!

 

[AlexM]

What didn’t you like re Manly’s 2 trial games that only sees them win 5 games?

Don't say Seibolds gut

 

[TheMorningEmu]

What didn’t you like re Manly’s 2 trial games that only sees them win 5 games?

Other than the fact that they are trial games?

Seriously though, every club below them last year improved while they lost a top 3-4 coach of all time (at least in the NRL era, but that is another convo) and replaced him with Anthony Siebold of all people, and they lost Foran, Walker, Taupau, and Davey.

I will concede I may be being a bit rough on 'em, a lot of off field drama last year and no Tommy Turbo, but how long will he really be healthy for this year?

Also, and most importantly, f*ck Manly lol

 

[Mullayo]

Tried the NRL Ladder Predictor and did my best to not look at the ladder as I picked the games.

Was anticipating the Panthers, Storm and us being a few slots lower and the Sharks being a few higher, but other than that, it is about how I thought it would shake out before I did the picks.

View attachment 50983

I made my own excel about a month ago, calculating each game, and these are my points' table results.

As of right now, I'd bump Manly up 5, Titans up 5, Cowboys down 5, Dragons down 5.

CLUB	END
Cowboys	44​
Storm	43​
Roosters	41​
Sharks	41​
Panthers	40​
EELS	38​
Rabbitohs	34​
Bulldogs	30​
Broncos	30​
Canberra	29​
Warriors	27​
Wests	24​
Knights	24​
Dragons	22​
Manly	18​
Titans	15​
Dolphins	14​

 

[TheMorningEmu]

I made my own excel about a month ago, calculating each game, and these are my points' table results.

As of right now, I'd bump Manly up 5, Titans up 5, Cowboys down 5, Dragons down 5.

CLUB	END
Cowboys	44​
Storm	43​
Roosters	41​
Sharks	41​
Panthers	40​
EELS	38​
Rabbitohs	34​
Bulldogs	30​
Broncos	30​
Canberra	29​
Warriors	27​
Wests	24​
Knights	24​
Dragons	22​
Manly	18​
Titans	15​
Dolphins	14​

Would bump the Storm down a few as well, but I quite like that

A few draws in there I notice.. Warriors v Titans, Raiders v Storm and Roosters v Sharks?

 

[Mullayo]

Was watching the Fins last night. Here's what's wrong with them.
Bennett has seemingly fallen for the old Storm players turning to trash again.

Nicholls, Ese'ese and J.Wallace >> Bromwich
Aitken, Lemuelu > Kaufusi, KennyB AND Brenko Lee
Katoa> Milf
Sullivan>> Shaun Johnson

Bennett needs to make some big decisions here for them to have a chance after getting towelled by 14th placed Titans.