General 2023 NRL Ladder

[Mullayo]

Yeah looks about right- id have tier 4 and 5 in the same bracket though- not much separating those 7 sides.

I was considering that but it felt like too many in one tier.
The future bets I made this year was I bet on 4 teams to miss the 8 because there are 7 that feel like sure things.

Broncos, Manly, Bulldogs and .Expect to get 3 at least, four at best and 2 covers the bets.

 

[Ref]

This could be the closest competition ever,.

1. Roosters
2. Panthers
3. Souths
4. Warriors
5. Sharks
6. Storm
7. Cowboys
8. Eels
9. Raiders
10. Bulldogs
11. Tigers
12. Manly
13. Broncos
14. Titans
15. Knights
16. Dragons
17. Dolphins

 

[Wrighty]

This could be the closest competition ever,.

1. Roosters
2. Panthers
3. Souths
4. Warriors
5. Sharks
6. Storm
7. Cowboys
8. Eels
9. Manly
10. Bulldogs
11. Tigers
12. Manly
13. Broncos
14. Titans
15. Knights
16. Dragons
17. Dolphins

Warriors in 4th???????

Why not just say Warriors in 2nd or 1st if you are being optimistic. 4th 2nd and 1st are all equally as likely.

 

[Wrighty]

My glass is half full optimistic ladder prediction

1. Warriors
2. Panthers - have lost a few players
3. Souths - Not quite premiership quality
4. Roosters - Will flatter to deceive in playoffs
5. Sharks - No better than last year
6. Storm - Not cutting it post Cam Smith showing how valuable he was to them
7. Cowboys - Everyone will be up for them this year. They won't surprise anyone.
8. Eels - Loss of their hooker and others to hurt
9. Manly
10. Bulldogs
11. Tigers
12. Manly
13. Broncos
14. Titans
15. Knights
16. Dragons
17. Dolphins

 

[Mr Brownstone]

My glass is half full optimistic ladder prediction

1. Warriors
2. Panthers - have lost a few players
3. Souths - Not quite premiership quality
4. Roosters - Will flatter to deceive in playoffs
5. Sharks - No better than last year
6. Storm - Not cutting it post Cam Smith showing how valuable he was to them
7. Cowboys - Everyone will be up for them this year. They won't surprise anyone.
8. Eels - Loss of their hooker and others to hurt
9. Manly
10. Bulldogs
11. Tigers
12. Manly
13. Broncos
14. Titans
15. Knights
16. Dragons
17. Dolphins

Interesting interpretation of glass half full - you had us an injury away from 17th 2 pages back on this thread!

 

[Mullayo]

I was going to agree with you

This could be the closest competition ever,.

I was going to agree with you , then I saw you had the Warriors in 4th not 14th... Bro it's not that close.

More like actors say they are close than the kissing cousins that you had.

 

[wizards rage]

This could be the closest competition ever,.

1. Roosters
2. Panthers
3. Souths
4. Warriors
5. Sharks
6. Storm
7. Cowboys
8. Eels
9. Manly
10. Bulldogs
11. Tigers
12. Manly
13. Broncos
14. Titans
15. Knights
16. Dragons
17. Dolphins

Raiders kicked out of the comp you reckon?

 

[Wrighty]

Interesting interpretation of glass half full - you had us an injury away from 17th 2 pages back on this thread!

It was an optimistic best case forecast

 

[Mr Brownstone]

It was an optimistic best case forecast

I think 2 pages back might have unfortunately been a bit more realistic

 

[Wrighty]

I think 2 pages back might have unfortunately been a bit more realistic

Of course 17th is more realistic if Addin Fonua-Blake gets injured.
We have fricking 3 props only let that sink in. We will have to borrow from Peter to pay Paul to get through a single game when all three are available
Of course 1 or even two of them could be unavailable in a given week due to suspensions or injuries. Our guys get suspended all the time. And it is hard not to be suspended over the course of a season with the heard clash protection rules.

But finshing first is mathematically possible and is a legitmate optimistic forecast.
What boggles me is projecting us to finish 5th or 6th or 3rd
Why dream of an absolute dream case scenario that is not realistic in anyway where you are the bridesmaid instead of the bride. Why dream of the man of your dreams being a balding banker instead of Brad Pitt. Go for Gold with dreams and best case scenarios and optimistic forecasts. Any projection of 6th to 2nd is nether optimistic best case or realistic it is a weird mix of lots of emotions that can't in any way be justified.
My projecting a first place finish can be justified as I will just say it is what my heart wants to see happen so I am forecasting it.

 

[Worried2Death]

Of course 17th is more realistic if Addin Fonua-Blake gets injured.
We have fricking 3 props only let that sink in. We will have to borrow from Peter to pay Paul to get through a single game when all three are available
Of course 1 or even two of them could be unavailable in a given week due to suspensions or injuries. Our guys get suspended all the time. And it is hard not to be suspended over the course of a season with the heard clash protection rules.

But finshing first is mathematically possible and is a legitmate optimistic forecast.
What boggles me is projecting us to finish 5th or 6th or 3rd
Why dream of an absolute dream case scenario that is not realistic in anyway where you are the bridesmaid instead of the bride. Why dream of the man of your dreams being a balding banker instead of Brad Pitt. Go for Gold with dreams and best case scenarios and optimistic forecasts. Any projection of 6th to 2nd is nether optimistic best case or realistic it is a weird mix of lots of emotions that can't in any way be justified.
My projecting a first place finish can be justified as I will just say it is what my heart wants to see happen so I am forecasting it.

Because we're not going to suddenly beat Penrith in the GF in Webby's first year, let's stay in reality here wrighty, and what have balding bankers got to do with it, have we signed Don Brash?

 

[Wrighty]

Because we're not going to suddenly beat Penrith in the GF in Webby's first year, let's stay in reality here wrighty, and what have balding bankers got to do with it, have we signed Don Brash?

How is finishing 6th or 5th any more likely according to a mathematical odds perspective than finishing 1st

All of those outcomes are One thousand to one long shots. There is no material difference for a lot of statisticians between Ten thousand to one and One thousand to one. Both will be a major fluke to happen,
We have just as much chance of beating the Panthers in the playoffs when the chips are down as beating the Roosters. or Souths or the Storm.

 

[Worried2Death]

How is finishing 6th or 5th any more likely according to a mathematical odds perspective than finishing 1st

All of those outcomes are One thousand to one long shots. There is no material difference for a lot of statisticians between Ten thousand to one and One thousand to one. Both will be a major fluke to happen,
We have just as much chance of beating the Panthers in the playoffs when the chips are down as beating the Roosters. or Souths or the Storm.

Fair enough they're all relatively unlikely, but what does Don Brash have to do with it

 

[Beastmode]

This could be the closest competition ever,.

1. Roosters
2. Panthers
3. Souths
4. Warriors
5. Sharks
6. Storm
7. Cowboys
8. Eels
9. Raiders
10. Bulldogs
11. Tigers
12. Manly
13. Broncos
14. Titans
15. Knights
16. Dragons
17. Dolphins

Some serious delusions of grandeur here or maybe just a typo?

 

[Mr Brownstone]

How is finishing 6th or 5th any more likely according to a mathematical odds perspective than finishing 1st

All of those outcomes are One thousand to one long shots. There is no material difference for a lot of statisticians between Ten thousand to one and One thousand to one. Both will be a major fluke to happen,
We have just as much chance of beating the Panthers in the playoffs when the chips are down as beating the Roosters. or Souths or the Storm.

Yeah I get where you are coming from - if you are going to predict what are close to zero probability outcomes then why not go all out and predict the best of those. If you are going with your heart then why not 1st.

I guess I’d rather see what people really think than just a bunch of unrealistic posts however.

 

[Bluecat again]

Im going to put a quiet $10 at the TAB on us winning the premiership.
Realistically I'll be happy if we get into the top 16

 

[wizards rage]

How is finishing 6th or 5th any more likely according to a mathematical odds perspective than finishing 1st

Statistically finishing 9th is the most likely outcome if we’re using the median.

Predicting 5/6th is hedging your bets and being pretty positive.

Predicting 1st, I would say is statistically almost impossible for the reason a 15th place team has never won it the following year? (Assumption). I think statistically you have to be in the top 8 the year before to have a chance to win.

Even more important - if your names not the Storm, Roosters or Panthers your chances based on history in the modern era is about halved.

 

[jonesy101]

Statistically I don't think I've ever seen a team concede 54 points in a second half. Oh wait...

 

[Beastmode]

Im going to put a quiet $10 at the TAB on us winning the premiership.

You have a better chance winning lotto

 

[jonesy101]

You have a better chance winning lotto

Or having a Chinese weather balloon land on your roof.